WEATHER

Feb. 6, 2022

The National Weather Service issued a flood warning this afternoon for several municipalities in the southeast due to heavy downpours affecting the region.

The warning is in effect until 7:30 p.m. today, for Arroyo, Maunabo, Patillas and Yabucoa, Dorado, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Vega Alta, Vega Baja, BAYAMÓN, CATAÑO, CAROLINA, GUAYNABO, SAN JUAN, TRUJILLO ALTO.

According to the bulletin, these towns could experience moderate to heavy rainfall, as well as urban and stream flooding.

Earlier, the NWS reported just over 12 inches of rain have fallen in Puerto Rico in the past 24 hours. Conditions today are expected to remain unstable.

Weather Outlook for Puerto Rico & US Virgin Islands and the adjacent Atlantic Coastal Waters

January 29, 2021

For tonight across the Atlantic waters, rough seas are expected due to seas increasing from 4 to 7 feet building to 10 to 12 feet after midnight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for western beaches of Saint Thomas and the eastern tip of Saint Croix.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate on Saturday, as a remnants of a frontal boundary combine with low-level moisture from a shearline located over the Caribbean waters. As a result, moderate flood potential could be possible on Saturday into Sunday for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly late tonight as a northerly swell moves across the local waters. Very hazardous marine and coastal conditions will dominate the upcoming weekend and coastal flood products and high surf advisories are in effect.

 

 

Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end

Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end

November 25, 2020

The extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is drawing to a close with a record-breaking 30 named storms and 12 landfalling storms in the continental United States. While the official hurricane season concludes on November 30, tropical storms may continue to develop past that day.

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks accurately predicted a high likelihood of an above-normal season with a strong possibility of it being extremely active. In total, the 2020 season produced 30 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 13 became hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or greater), including six major hurricanes (top winds of 111 mph or greater). This is the most storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and the second-highest number of hurricanes on record.

“Throughout this relentless hurricane season, NOAA worked around-the-clock to provide critical data and reliable forecasts to our Nation’s communities in the path of devastating storms,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The services provided by NOAA, alongside our emergency management partners, undoubtedly helped save many lives and protect property.”

The 2020 season got off to an early and rapid pace with a record nine named storms from May through July, and then quickly exhausted the 21-name Atlantic list when Tropical Storm Wilfred formed on September 18. For only the second time in history, the Greek alphabet was used for the remainder of the season, extending through the 9th name in the list, Iota.

“The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season ramped up quickly and broke records across the board,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D, acting NOAA administrator. “Our investments in research, forecast models, and computer technology allowed forecasters at the National Weather Service, and its National Hurricane Center, to issue forecasts with increasing accuracy, resulting in the advanced lead time needed to ensure that decision makers and communities were ready and responsive.”

This is the fifth consecutive year with an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with 18 above-normal seasons out of the past 26. This increased hurricane activity is attributed to the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) — which began in 1995 — and has favored more, stronger, and longer-lasting storms since that time. Such active eras for Atlantic hurricanes have historically lasted about 25 to 40 years. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

“As we correctly predicted, an interrelated set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions linked to the warm AMO were again present this year. These included warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger west African monsoon, along with much weaker vertical wind shear and wind patterns coming off of Africa that were more favorable for storm development. These conditions, combined with La Nina, helped make this record-breaking, extremely active hurricane season possible,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

This historic hurricane season saw record water levels in several locations, including the Gulf Coast where Hurricane Sally brought the highest observed water levels since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. NOAA’s National Ocean Service stations recorded this data using the Coastal Inundation Dashboard, a tool to observe real-time water levels during a storm.

Scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the Satellite Data and Information Service were able to get wave height information into the hands of forecasters using new instrumentation like the Ka-band Interferometric Altimeter. This vital oceanic data allowed forecasters to help mariners avoid dangerous situations at sea.

Additionally, three hurricanes — Isaias, Laura, and Sally — passed within range of NOAA’s hurricane ocean gliders this year, capturing invaluable ocean data below the storms while hurricane hunter planes captured atmospheric data above.

Capturing atmospheric data this season was no small feat, as forecasters and researchers relied on the heroic efforts of NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters to provide invaluable data during this record-setting season.

 

Coast Guard sets Port Condition WHISKEY for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to tropical wave Invest 98L

August 19, 2020

SAN JUAN – The Coast Guard set Port Condition WHISKEY for the maritime ports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgins Islands at 4 p.m. Tuesday, due to tropical wave Invest 98L possibly arriving to the islands within 72 hours.

Coast Guard port assessment teams are visiting Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands Wednesday to assess preparedness actions being taken by port facilities. The Captain of the Port San Juan strongly cautions the maritime community to remain vigilant to the development and trajectory of tropical wave Invest 98L and take the necessary precautions, as there is a possibility it may continue to gain strength and further develop into a tropical storm as it approaches the area.

During Port Condition WHISKEY port facilities are currently open to all commercial traffic and all transfer operations may continue while WHISKEY remains in effect.

Pleasure craft should seek safe harbor. Maritime and port facilities are reminded to review and update their heavy weather response plans and make any additional preparations needed to adequately prepare in case of a potential impact to the area.

Mariners are reminded there are no safe havens in these facilities, and ports are safest when the inventory of vessels is at a minimum. All ocean-going commercial vessels greater than 500 gross tons should make plans for departing the port, any vessels wishing to remain in port are required to submit an application to the Captain of the Port prior to the setting of Port Condition X-Ray.

The Coast Guard Captain of the Port San Juan anticipates setting Port Condition X-RAY at 4 p.m. Wednesday for the ports in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These dates and times are subject to change based on future forecast.

There are 2 systems out there in the Atlantic

August 18, 2020

Two areas of disturbed weather located over the Atlantic basin on this Tuesday afternoon continue to be watched closely. One is a a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and continues to produce an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds.

This wave is moving quickly westward at about 20 mph and significant development is unlikely while it moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to slow down, and a tropical depression will likely form late this week or this weekend when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It has a low (30 percent) chance of formation during the next 8 hours and a high (70 percent) chance during the next five days.

The other is an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progres of this system. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (90 percent) chance during the next five days.

 

Forecasters say 10 more hurricanes are likely this season

August 5,2020
We ain't seen nothing yet: The ravages of Hurricanes Hanna and Isaias are just a prelude to the main act to come, top forecasters said Wednesday, with 10 more hurricanes likely to follow. 

"We have increased our forecast and now call for an extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season," meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said. 
In all, Klotzbach and his Colorado State University forecast team predicts 24 named storms in 2020. That includes the nine named storms that have already formed: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias.

Of those, researchers expect 12 to become hurricanes (including the two that have already formed, Hanna and Isaias).

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach 74 mph. An average season has 12 tropical storms, six of which are hurricanes.

"The team predicts that 2020 hurricane activity will be about 190% of the average season," according to the new forecast. "By comparison, 2019’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season."

More bad news: Five of the hurricanes are forecast to reach major hurricane strength – Category 3, 4 or 5 – with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The team also said there's a 74% chance a major hurricane will hit somewhere along the U.S. coastline this year.

The reasons? Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, and warmer water means more fuel for storms, Klotzbach said.

Also, shearing winds in the Atlantic are very weak, researchers said, which aids in hurricane development and intensification.

Another reason for the extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast is the result of a very active West African monsoon, Klotzbach said. "More robust easterly waves and more conducive upper-level winds for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic are typically associated with an active monsoon." Easterly waves are the small weather disturbances that eject off Africa, which can develop into hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued For the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS — The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday morning issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, which means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the developing weather system was centered near Latitude 13.8 North, Longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 miles per hour, and this general motion should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles primarily to the northeast of the center.

“We are urging everyone to make their last-minute preparations now,” said Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency Director Daryl Jaschen. “We anticipate strong winds and rain with this system. It’s important that everyone continues to monitor this system closely and stay informed about what local authorities are directing the public to do.”

To receive weather and other emergency information via mobile phone or email visit www.vitema.vi.gov to register for Alert VI.

VITEMA Monitoring Invest 92-L Storm System, Residents Urged to be Ready for Hurricane Season

July 26, 2020

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS – The Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA) is closely monitoring Invest 92-L, a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic, for possible development over the next few days

According to the National Hurricane Center, the broad area of low pressure is producing a wide area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward at approximately 20 miles per hour across the Atlantic and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next two to three days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles.

VITEMA Director Daryl Jaschen continues to encourage the public to take time now to finalize their preparedness efforts as the peak of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season fast-approaches, and with a potentially hazardous weather system churning in the Atlantic.

“Now is the time to make sure that you have supplies, such as water and dried goods, to last at least ten (10) days and that you and your family have a plan for communicating and know what to do if a storm or hurricane affects the Territory,” Director Jaschen has said. “Consider the needs of children, the elderly and pets in the home when you plan. Additionally, everyone should also prepare their homes and store any loose items that could become a projectile in a storm.”

“In this COVID environment, it is also imperative that you avoid waiting until the last minute to rush to the store to get what you need,” he said. “Preparing now means that you are being proactive in keeping your family safe and knowing what to do means that there is that much less stress when a storm is headed our way.”

For more information on how to prepare visit www.VITEMA.vi.gov or follow us at www.Facebook.com/VITEMA . For real time information on weather events impacting the USVI and updates from local authorities, visit www.VITEMA.vi.gov to register with Alert VI.

Director Jaschen and Human Services Commissioner Kimberley Causey-Gomez will join Governor Albert Bryan Jr. for his regularly scheduled press conference at 1 p.m. on Monday to provide an update on the National Hurricane Center forecast and to discuss hurricane preparedness. The press conference will be streamed live at www.Facebook.com/GovernmentHouseUSVI and on Government Access Channel 27.

VITEMA Director Urges Residents to Be Ready as 2020 Hurricane Season Reaches Peak

JULY 22, 2020.

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS – Daryl Jaschen, Director of the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA), is encouraging the public to take time now to make sure they are ready for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season is heading into its peak, from August to October, when the frequency of storms is expected to increase.

“Now is the time to make sure that you have supplies, such as water and dried goods, to last at least 10 days and that you and your family have a plan for communicating and know what to do if a storm or hurricane impacts the Territory,” Director Jaschen said. “Consider the needs of children, the elderly and pets in the home when you plan. Additionally, everyone should also prepare their homes and store any loose items that could become a projectile in a storm.”

“In this COVID environment, it is also imperative that you avoid waiting until the last minute to rush to the store to get what you need,” Jaschen said. “Preparing now means that you are being proactive in keeping your family safe and knowing what to do means that there will be much less stress when a storm is headed our way.”

VITEMA continues to coordinate with all government agencies, its federal partners and non-government organizations to ensure the Territory is prepared to respond in the event a storm. This coordination effort includes the distribution of sandbags, readying shelters, shoring up communications capabilities and much more.

A key member of this partnership is the VI Department of Human Services

Department of Human Services Commissioner, Kimberley Causey-Gomez stated that DHS has been working diligently with all partner agencies to ensure the U.S. Virgin Islands is responsive and a shelter and feeding plan is in place during this 2020 Hurricane Season.”

“We are asking that everyone be prepared to shelter in place, as a primary measure, or with family and friends who have a secure place to weather the storm,” Causey-Gomez said. “Due to social distancing measures related to COVID-19, we will need to keep the number of people in congregate shelters to a minimum with extensive screening measures.”

VITEMA is keeping a watchful eye on the Atlantic Basin. Today, Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed near Latitude 9.9 North, Longitude 45.0 West.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. Public Advisory, Tropical Storm Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds near 50 miles per hour with higher gust. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, as tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only up to 25 miles from the center.

A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

The system is about 1,110 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Based on the current forecast track, the system is projected pass well south of the Virgin Islands this weekend.

BE PREPARED IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES!

Tropical Depression Forms in the Atlantic, Could be Gonzalo Soon

July 21, 2020

A newly formed Tropical Depression was formed in central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 1185 miles (1905 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and about 1420 miles (2285 km) east of the southern Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected to take place tonight and Wednesday, and that motion should continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.Strengthening is forecast to occur during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. When that occurs, it will be named Gonzalo.

 

With Storms in May, Lawmaker Wants a Longer Hurricane Season

June 17, 2020

Even though the six-month Atlantic hurricane season lasts as long as a typical Major League Baseball season, a Florida congresswoman thinks it needs to be longer.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy on Wednesday sent a letter to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration requesting that the start of the official hurricane season be in mid-May. The current season goes from June through November, but Murphy said there has been at least one named storm before June 1 in each of the past six years.

In 2020, three tropical storms — Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal — formed in mid-May and the beginning of June, she said.

“This presents a practical problem, because government officials and residents in hurricane-prone states use this season to inform their funding choices, public awareness campaigns, and preparation decisions," Murphy said in the letter. “Accordingly, an official season that does not accurately predict major storm activity could result in readiness being compromised and people and property being harmed."

NOAA has received the congresswoman's letter and the agency looks forward to discussing the topic with her, spokesman Christopher Vaccaro said.

Although several tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic before June 1 in recent years, most of them have been “marginal in their structure" and improved satellite monitoring has likely led to an increase in short-lived, weak storms being named by the National Hurricane Center in recent years, said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University.

There has been only one named hurricane before June since the satellite era started in 1966 — Hurricane Alma in 1970.

Tropical Storm, Storm Surge Watches Issued From Florida to Louisiana as Cristobal Targets Gulf Coast This Weekend

June 5, 2020

Tropical Storm Cristobal is still moving over Mexico but will track toward the Gulf Coast of the United States this weekend with expansive threats of flooding rain, coastal flooding, high surf and strong winds.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm watch for parts of the northern Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. This means Tropical Storm-force winds (sustained winds of at least 39 mph) are possible in the area within the next 48 hours.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for parts of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancún and Cozumel. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of the warning area over the next few hours.

NHC has issued a storm surge watch from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Missisippi, including Lake Borgne. This means potentially life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast is possible within the next 48 hours.

Further to the east, a storm surge watch is also in effect from Indian Pass to Arepika, Florida, as some of Cristobal's impacts will extend well east of its center.

Cristobal weakened to a tropical depression Thursday morning but restrengthened into a tropical storm on Friday afternoon. Some additional strengthening is expected after it moves out into the Gulf of Mexico later on Friday.

New Tropical Storm Cristobal forms in the Gulf

June 2, 2020

The disturbance over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico that is related to former Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda has formed into Tropical Storm Cristobal.

This is the earliest date for the formation of a "C" storm in the record book.

This storm isn’t forecast to move very much, and will likely stay near the Mexican coastline through midweek or longer.

For later this week, the forecast is challenging, but the consensus of the computer forecast models brings Cristobal, or possibly another system formed out of the mass of moisture Cristobal is embedded in, toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Cristobal should not have any effect on South Florida in the next few days. High pressure has pushed over the peninsula from the Atlantic keeping the bad weather to the west. But later in the week, we’ll likely notice some changes.

The storm will not be renamed Amanda because the circulation at the surface of the earth was disrupted by the mountains between the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf. Since a new surface circulation has now formed, the storm will get a new name.

A complicating factor with this storm is that Cristobal has been embedded in a much larger low-pressure system called a Central American Gyre – a gyre being a large rotating weather system. These gyres are not uncommon, especially in the spring and also in the last part of the summer and early fall. Sometimes a smaller tropical system can break off from the parent gyre, and become a stronger independent entity.

The Gyre and Cristobal appear to be merging now, but it’s unclear if the circulation will survive or another one will form.

This system could be the 3rd tropical storm before hurricane season even starts

May 29, 2020

A tropical system developing over the central Atlantic Ocean has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical depression Friday or Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It would be called Cristobal if it developed into a named storm.

An NHC update on Friday morning said the system is developing several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Formation chance through 48 hours is at 50 percent and formation chance through 5 days is at 50 percent.

It is not expected to develop further after Saturday due to unfavorable environmental conditions, NHC said.

There have already been two named storms before the start of hurricane season on June 1.

Tropical storms Arthur and Bertha formed during May with Bertha making landfall in South Carolina on Wednesday.

Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020

May 26, 2020

An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

“Hurricane preparedness is critically important for the 2020 hurricane season, just as it is every year. Keep in mind, you may need to adjust any preparedness actions based on the latest health and safety guidelines from the CDC and your local officials,” NOAA said in its media release.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

“The combination of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995,” reads the news release.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2020 Atlantic seasonal outlook in August prior to the historical peak of the season.

NOAA said it is upgrading products and tools such as the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer.

“HWRF will incorporate new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame. HMON will undergo enhancements to include higher resolution, improved physics, and coupling with ocean models,” the agency explained.

Tropical Storm Arthur inches closer to East Coast

May 17, 2020

Tropical Storm Arthur continued to gradually strengthen Sunday, inching closer to the U.S. East Coast.

According to the 5 p.m. Sunday advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Arthur was moving north-northeast at 9 mph with max sustained winds of 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast.

 

First tropical storm of hurricane season may develop near Florida, Bahamas by this weekend

May 12, 2020

Weeks ahead of schedule, the hurricane season's first tropical system could develop near Florida and the Bahamas this weekend, forecasters said Tuesday.

As of midday Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said there was a 50% chance of development within the next five days. "An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas," the hurricane center said.

The official start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is June 1, although storms often form before that date, as they have in each of the past five years. The peak of the season is usually in September. If the system gets a name, it would be Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm Arthur. Subtropical storms are those that have characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems. Storms get a name when their winds reach 39 mph.

The official start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is June 1, although storms often form before that date, as they have in each of the past five years. The peak of the season is usually in September.

If the system gets a name, it would be Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm Arthur. Subtropical storms are those that have characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems.

Storms get a name when their winds reach 39 mph.

The center of the system and most of its rain should stay east of the U.S. mainland, but there will be some impact from it reaching the beaches of the U.S. and perhaps more significant impact on the islands offshore.

Showers and thunderstorms may also occur over part of South Florida late this week as the system gets organized.

Although the system isn't likely to directly affect the U.S., the developing storm "is certainly a good reminder that hurricane season is around the corner and that preparation is necessary," wrote University of Georgia meteorologist Marshall Shepherd in Forbes.

Longest UN Climate Talks End with No Deal on Carbon Markets

December 15, 2019

The UN Climate Summit (COP25) ended this Sunday in Madrid with a modest agreement, postponing until next year a key decision on global carbon markets.

Delegates from almost 200 nations endorsed a declaration to help poor countries suffering the effects of climate change but didn't allocate any new funds to do so.

The final agreement highlighted the ''urgent need'' to cut greenhouse gases in line with the goals of the landmark 2015 Paris climate change accord.

But despite holding the longest climate talks ever in 25 annual editions, many delegates resisted calls to enhance pledges to cut greenhouse gases next year.

The Paris accord established the common goal of avoiding a temperature increase of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. So far, the world is on course for a 3- to 4-degree Celsius rise, with potentially dramatic consequences for many countries, including rising sea levels and fiercer storms.

The thorniest issues, including carbon markets, were left for the next summit in Glasgow in a year's time.

Environmental groups and activists accused the world's richer countries of showing little commitment to seriously tackling climate change.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "disappointed" by the meeting's outcome.

The international community lost an important opportunity to show increased ambition on mitigation, adaptation and finance to tackle the climate crisis,'' he said.

 


November 22, 2019

Earth’s Second Warmest October on Record

NASA, NOAA, and the Japan Meteorological Agency are in solid consensus that last month was the second warmest October in global records that extend back to the late 1800s. The agencies agreed that October 2019 came in just behind October 2015. The Copernicus EU office found that October was narrowly the warmest on record in its dataset, which extends back to 1979. Variations in how different groups analyze data-sparse regions such as the Arctic can lead to minor differences between groups in the rankings of a particular month.

The NOAA report, released on Monday, found that October 2019 was 0.98°C (1.76°F) above the 20th-century average and only 0.06°C (0.11°F) cooler than October 2015. The last five Octobers are the five warmest on record globally, according to NOAA, as evident in Figure 1. To find an October that was cooler than the 20th-century global average, you have to go all the way back to 1976.

Also finding that last month was the second warmest October was the University of Alabama Huntsville, based on data from NOAA’s satellite-based Microwave Sounding Units for the lowest five miles of the atmosphere (the lower and middle troposphere). October 2017 is the warmest October in the UAH database, which goes back to December 1978.

NOAA found that areas of record-warm October temperatures were focused across parts of the northern and western Pacific Ocean and northeastern Canada, as well as scattered across parts of the South Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, and South America. Record cold for October was limited to a patch of the northwest U.S.

With two months left to go, 2019 will likely come in as the second warmest year on record globally, according to NOAA, and it’s a virtual lock to be one of the five warmest years on record globally. If this happens, then the five warmest years in more than a century of recordkeeping, and perhaps for centuries before that, will be (not in this order) 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. This warmth is even more amazing considering that the sun has been in the declining phase of its least active 11-year activity cycle in more than a century. In their initial consensus forecast, a NOAA-NASA team is predicting that the next solar cycle is likely to be just as weak.

Apparently the Atlantic will produce a last tropical system before the hurricane season is over.

November 18, 2019

A low pressure about 500 miles northeast of the Antilles already has a 40% chance of development for the next 5 days.

Development is possible and a tropical depression could form in the next few days before a cold front absorbs it in the middle of the week. It is possible that it can be tropical or subtropical Storm Sebastien.

Fortunately, it will not pose any threat to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico or the Caribbean as it will have a northwesterly movement in the open waters of the Atlantic.

WEATHER ALERT:

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas and Rapid Rises for St. Croix until 2:45 PM AST

______________________________________________________

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on post-tropical cyclone Rebekah, located over the north Atlantic just north of the westernmost Azores.

Elsewhere on this Friday morning, disorganized showers and thunderstorms are located nearly 1000 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development by later today, and significant development of this system is not anticipated as the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

SUB-TROPICAL STORM REBECAH FORMS IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC

OCTOBER 30,2019

SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah.

NHC is issuing advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Rebekah, the 17th named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

Rebekah is centered as of 5 p.m. AST over the northeast Atlantic Ocean about 745 miles (1195 km) west of the Azores. It's moving toward the east near 13 MPH.

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